第一關目標 - 26500

估唔到兩日就到左第一關目標 - 26500...

現價: 26,449.13

再買7500值博率唔高 (重要支持係下面). 再返上去27300再買都未遲.

下面有幾個重要支持位

26500 - 通道底 (已穿)

26480 - 200 week MA (下星期可能穿)

25778 - 250 week MA (中線底可買一注貨) - 重有671.13行

24896 - 2019一月底 (中線一定唔可以穿)

一月結 - 要識保本

月供股票入晒單

一月主要做幾樣部署

• 炒股走晒
• 收息股等位加
• 買7500做hedging

依家就等星期一A股開市

早前已經講左會彈高少少再做hedging.

上星期再入左一注7500

所以今日個倉只跌左0.4%

大家又係時候做功課

努力搵多啲250週底位買貨

鼠年新年快樂!

鼠年祝各位網友身體健康, 心想事成！

Market neutral - 7500

美團跌穿左止蝕位. 都走埋. 呢個29100浪都有賺, 不過影響左部份股票部署.

下面部署前提係唔升穿29000

第一注 7500 - 27800. 1:2.6 risk reward ratio

第二注 7500 - 28100-28300. 1:9 risk reward ratios

Fact:

現價係ultimate moving average 之下

Squeeze momentum 見紅

26500 通道底做目標

再減一減磅take profit

一個長假期返到黎應該都兇多吉少

再減AIA take profit

可能今日下晝會入7500做hedging

抄功課 - Stanley Druckenmiller's Picks for 2020

Druckenmiller is long equities, long commodities, short fixed income, long commodity currencies, and short the Yen.

Long equities: A year ago Druckenmiller was long Cloud growth stocks, on the thesis that they would grow in a low nominal growth world, and he still owns them. But he's increased the weight of financials which will benefit from higher nominal growth.

Long commodities: Druckenmiller owns copper, as it will benefit from economic growth and electric vehicles will boost demand by half a percentage point per year. He doesn't own energy due to its long term demand outlook.

Short fixed income: Druckenmiller is short long Treasurys, as he believes that interest rates are inappropriately low.

Commodity currencies: He's long currencies that benefit from rising commodity prices, namely Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Mexico.

Bullish on the U.K.: He expects investment to "fly" into the U.K. following Boris Johnson's win. "I think they'll do very well there... I was always a Brexiteer, as they did fine for 500 years before joining Europe. Boris Johnson is a smarter version of Trump without some of the antics." The U.K. has a deficit to GDP ratio of two versus four and a half for the U.S, a lower debt to GDP ratio, and U.K. equities are trading at 12 times earnings and 4% dividend yield. The pound is Druckenmiller's favorite currency, and he owns British financials, including Barclays (NYSE: BCS) and Lloyds (NYSE: LYG).

Link:

https://j2tx.com/solutions/NewsView/115731/yamixed

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cs-0aC9Rd8g&t=1407s

多災多難 - Long/short equity strategy

香港真係多災多難. 一波未停, 一波又起

大陸搞肺炎一搞都要一頭半個月

股市一日唔見800點

送中都無試過...

小第先幾日同個做hedge fund既朋友食飯

原來佢一年跑數只係要4-5% overall return

我當時嚇到傻咗. 之後再返屋企做research. 發現原來做long short equity strategy個盤, 一般都係做4-5%數就得.

原理就係一邊long同時一邊short, 達到market neutral效果. 所以無論升跌, 都有數圍.

一般市場比例係130 long/30 short.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/long-shortequity.asp

奇想: 係小弟個portfolio volatile時加隻7500會點.

睇返今日, 回到28500就可以開7500做hedging. 平衡個盤. 當然神級調動就係29000做short. 今日食 5.5%. 如果尋日用倉位30%調動去做. 今日會少蝕60%. 達到局部時間market neutral.

不過睇跌都要賭. 我朋友都話做hedge fund就等於日日賭錢, 市場太浮動. 好難可以避過市場消息.

Hedge Fund Strategy return 2019 (From Financial Times)

大市indicator - CM_Ultimate Moving Average

睇得多股票自然想愈學愈多去fine tune自己個方法. 小弟一向都係以保守為主. 希望有一個能攻擅守既portfolio. 所以都想學多D方法去睇大市. 最近去左Sky sir個Seminar, 想再學多d, 不過課程有啲貴同唔知係咪做財演, 都係自己再鑽研...

近排發現咗一個indicator幾好用. 叫CM_Ultimate_Moving Average. 可以睇大市momentum. 再配合squeeze momentum睇市. 都有七分可以捕捉高低.

高位獲利 - 29200

個市近一個月升到你唔信
買乜都升
到29200位置慢慢獲利

先減持申州2313.
2313一定係好股, 不過難破頂, 除非有好業績同利好消息.
$115先行獲利, 回返250天日線左右先入返.
業績係3月尾. 希望3月尾前可以入返.
$104入返

兩隻炒股 - 美團同AIA維持強勢
都升左成20%
回先再加.

美團 - 新止蝕位定係$103.
AIA - $78會考慮加

恒指大位
25779 - 週線

注意板塊
5G
體育用品

#部署notes

2019 年結 + 2020 值博收息股

個人方面

年頭買樓, 依家已經入左伙都叫可以安居樂業 :). 不過錢就用左一大筆.. 中途又要獲利攪裝修.. 結婚又要一大筆.. 香港做男人真艱難.

2020 希望工作順利, 香港好運

投資方面

小弟學投資都係呢一年既事.

呢一年總回報係10%左右同半年結一樣.

主要有幾樣野要改善

1. 港股係玩stock picking同有無人炒賣, 如果無乜賣點, 好難有得升

2. 2019 最失敗買股

- 長江基建 1038 - 都係個句有跌幅, 無升幅. (好似今日真係乜都升, 佢又跌...)

- 新創建 659 - 本身係一隻優質收息股. 炒完收購富通, 跌左50%...

3. 買股要睇週線圖. 因為買收息股係睇長遠. 下面再講有邊隻依家係值博.

4. 買完要識坐盤. 依家重學緊.

- 錯失左舜宇光學 2382 35%升幅. 升到20%已經止賺左

5. 買完要獲利. 估值過高就應該放. 重有信心先補倉. 中途獲利港鐵同領展保護20%利潤. 月供地鐵現時平均價係43. 又可以繼續坐返上去.

值博收息股

- 過去八年都無穿過周線圖250天平均線

香港電訊－Ｓ (06823.HK)

收益率 - 6.208%

高位回左18%

恆生銀行 (00011.HK)

收益率 - 4.624%

高位回左31%

置富產業信託 (00778.HK)

收益率 -  5.648%

高位回左24%

[買入] 2020 第一買 - 3690 美團點評－Ｗ

尋晚落盤$101 買美團

一路見住佢升都唔夠膽買

買股最驚就係有跌幅, 無升幅

好多個月前小弟一路都有睇新經濟股, 不過一路都唔夠膽買...

今次買美團會定$95止蝕. 我都係相信炒作過咗會回調一段時間.

美團今年盈利預測係2019年嘅660%.
預測巿盈率: 92.39

大陸野我就唔多信不過炒股另計