Tuesday 21 January 2020

抄功課 - Stanley Druckenmiller's Picks for 2020

Druckenmiller is long equities, long commodities, short fixed income, long commodity currencies, and short the Yen.

Long equities: A year ago Druckenmiller was long Cloud growth stocks, on the thesis that they would grow in a low nominal growth world, and he still owns them. But he's increased the weight of financials which will benefit from higher nominal growth.

Long commodities: Druckenmiller owns copper, as it will benefit from economic growth and electric vehicles will boost demand by half a percentage point per year. He doesn't own energy due to its long term demand outlook.

Short fixed income: Druckenmiller is short long Treasurys, as he believes that interest rates are inappropriately low.

Commodity currencies: He's long currencies that benefit from rising commodity prices, namely Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Mexico.

Bullish on the U.K.: He expects investment to "fly" into the U.K. following Boris Johnson's win. "I think they'll do very well there... I was always a Brexiteer, as they did fine for 500 years before joining Europe. Boris Johnson is a smarter version of Trump without some of the antics." The U.K. has a deficit to GDP ratio of two versus four and a half for the U.S, a lower debt to GDP ratio, and U.K. equities are trading at 12 times earnings and 4% dividend yield. The pound is Druckenmiller's favorite currency, and he owns British financials, including Barclays (NYSE: BCS) and Lloyds (NYSE: LYG).


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